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La Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · RCDE Stadium
Espanyol14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Athletic Bilbao7th place
ESP 32%X 29%ATH 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.4, Espanyol -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Espanyol 0.8.
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.542%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.16X29%3.44239%2.55
Double chance
1X61%1.65X268%1.461271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.542%2.39Under 2.558%1.72BTTS yes49%2.06BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Espanyol · Columns: Athletic Bilbao1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

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Head to head

Espanyol – Athletic Bilbao13 May 20262-0
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol22 December 20251-2
Espanyol – Athletic Bilbao16 February 20251-1
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol19 October 20244-1
Espanyol – Athletic Bilbao8 April 20231-2
Athletic Bilbao – Espanyol4 September 20220-1