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La Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estadio Abanca-Balaídos
Celta Vigo10th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
CEL 17%X 23%RMA 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 226 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Celta Vigo -0.3.
  • Real Madrid take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%6.06X23%4.31260%1.66
Double chance
1X40%2.52X283%1.201277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Celta Vigo · Columns: Real Madrid0-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Celta Vigo – Real Madrid6 March 20261-2
Real Madrid – Celta Vigo7 December 20250-2
Real Madrid – Celta Vigo4 May 20253-2
Celta Vigo – Real Madrid19 October 20241-2
Real Madrid – Celta Vigo10 March 20244-0
Celta Vigo – Real Madrid25 August 20230-1