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La Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Málaga20th place
VIL 74%X 17%MAL 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Villarreal lead by 173 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Villarreal 1.4 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Málaga score first, they win 31% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.563%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
174%1.35X17%5.8729%11.24
Double chance
1X91%1.10X226%3.861283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.563%1.60Under 2.537%2.67BTTS yes49%2.02BTTS no51%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Málaga2-0 probability 12.0%

Form

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Head to head

Málaga – Villarreal17 September 20261-3