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La Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 21 March · 16:00 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Alavés10th place
RSO 47%X 27%ALA 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Real Sociedad 2.4 points per game, Alavés 0.4.
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Alavés score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Real Sociedad win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X27%3.70226%3.87
Double chance
1X74%1.35X253%1.891273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Alavés1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Sociedad – Alavés11 April 20263-3
Alavés – Real Sociedad6 December 20251-0
Alavés – Real Sociedad23 April 20251-0
Real Sociedad – Alavés28 August 20241-2
Alavés – Real Sociedad31 March 20240-1
Real Sociedad – Alavés2 January 20241-1