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La Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Valencia19th place
ATM 67%X 21%VAL 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 182 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Valencia 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Valencia -0.5.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Valencia score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.551%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.49X21%4.70212%8.45
Double chance
1X88%1.13X233%3.021279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.551%1.96Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes45%2.22BTTS no55%1.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Valencia2-0 probability 13.2%

Form

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Head to head

Valencia – Atlético Madrid2 May 20260-2
Atlético Madrid – Valencia13 December 20252-1
Valencia – Atlético Madrid22 February 20250-3
Atlético Madrid – Valencia15 September 20243-0
Atlético Madrid – Valencia28 January 20242-0
Valencia – Atlético Madrid16 September 20233-0