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La Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-3High confidence
Barcelona1st place
MAL 6%X 11%BAR 83%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 400 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Barcelona 2.4 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 21% of the time
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 93% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals0.8 – 3.1
Over 2.575%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score0-3
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
16%17.27X11%9.03283%1.20
Double chance
1X17%5.93X294%1.061289%1.12
Goals
Over 2.575%1.34Under 2.525%3.97BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Barcelona0-3 probability 10.3%

Form

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