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La Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Osasuna15th place
RMA 80%X 14%OSA 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 293 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Osasuna 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Osasuna 0.1.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Osasuna score first, they win 25% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.6
Over 2.565%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.24X14%7.3326%17.06
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%5.131286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.84BTTS yes44%2.27BTTS no56%1.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Osasuna2-0 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Osasuna – Real Madrid21 February 20262-1
Real Madrid – Osasuna19 August 20251-0
Osasuna – Real Madrid15 February 20251-1
Real Madrid – Osasuna9 November 20244-0
Osasuna – Real Madrid16 March 20242-4
Real Madrid – Osasuna7 October 20234-0