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Ligue 1 · Matchday 28Saturday 17 April · 16:00 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Lorient10th place
AUX 33%X 29%LOR 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lorient 0.1, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.3
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lorient win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.01X29%3.46238%2.64
Double chance
1X62%1.61X267%1.501271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.546%2.19Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Lorient1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL
LorientDLWWD

Head to head

Lorient – Auxerre1 March 20262-2
Auxerre – Lorient17 August 20251-0
Lorient – Auxerre26 February 20230-1
Auxerre – Lorient16 September 20221-3