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Ligue 1 · Matchday 28Saturday 17 April · 16:00 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Lille2nd place
PSG 63%X 22%LIL 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 111 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Lille 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Lille -0.1.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X22%4.49214%6.91
Double chance
1X86%1.17X237%2.721278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Lille2-0 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Lille – Paris Saint-Germain28 August 20262-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Lille16 January 20263-0
Lille – Paris Saint-Germain5 October 20251-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Lille1 March 20254-1
Lille – Paris Saint-Germain1 September 20241-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Lille10 February 20243-1