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Ligue 1 · Matchday 28Saturday 17 April · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest14th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Le Mans17th place
BRE 61%X 22%LMS 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.8, Le Mans -0.7.
  • Brest lead by 74 rating points.
  • If Brest score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.63X22%4.45216%6.19
Double chance
1X84%1.19X239%2.591278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Le Mans1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL
Le MansWLLDL

Head to head

Le Mans – Brest22 August 20262-2