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Ligue 1 · Matchday 30Saturday 1 May · 16:00 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Lyon3rd place
AUX 25%X 26%OL 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 146 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.552%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.00X26%3.82249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.95X275%1.331274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.552%1.92Under 2.548%2.09BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lyon – Auxerre4 September 20263-1
Lyon – Auxerre25 April 20263-2
Auxerre – Lyon23 November 20250-0
Auxerre – Lyon13 April 20251-3
Lyon – Auxerre27 October 20242-2
Auxerre – Lyon17 February 20232-1