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Ligue 1 · Matchday 30Saturday 1 May · 16:00 · Stade Océane
Le Havre18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Paris FC4th place
HAC 25%X 27%PFC 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC lead by 168 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris FC 1.8 points per game, Le Havre 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Le Havre -0.2.
  • If Le Havre score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.94X27%3.77248%2.08
Double chance
1X52%1.93X275%1.341273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Havre · Columns: Paris FC1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

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Head to head

Paris FC – Le Havre22 March 20263-2
Le Havre – Paris FC7 December 20250-0