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Ligue 1 · Matchday 30Saturday 1 May · 16:00 · Stade de la Meinau
Strasbourg12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Lille2nd place
STR 34%X 28%LIL 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lille lead by 74 rating points.
  • Lille take 2.4 points per game away.
  • Last 5 games: Lille 1.6 points per game, Strasbourg 0.6.
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.4
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.95X28%3.55238%2.64
Double chance
1X62%1.61X266%1.511272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Strasbourg · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Lille – Strasbourg25 January 20261-4
Strasbourg – Lille9 November 20252-0
Strasbourg – Lille25 January 20252-1
Lille – Strasbourg21 September 20243-3
Lille – Strasbourg21 April 20241-0
Strasbourg – Lille20 December 20232-1