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Ligue 1 · Matchday 30Saturday 1 May · 16:00 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Brest14th place
ETG 27%X 27%BRE 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brest lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.8, Troyes -0.4.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.551%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Brest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.65X27%3.72246%2.19
Double chance
1X54%1.84X273%1.381273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW
BrestLLWDL

Head to head

Troyes – Brest19 March 20232-2
Brest – Troyes13 November 20222-1
Brest – Troyes13 February 20225-1
Troyes – Brest22 December 20211-1