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Ligue 1 · Matchday 30Saturday 1 May · 16:00 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lorient10th place
MON 48%X 28%LOR 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.10X28%3.59225%4.07
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.911272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Lorient1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL
LorientDLWWD

Head to head

Lorient – Monaco18 October 20261-0
Monaco – Lorient16 January 20261-3
Lorient – Monaco27 September 20253-1
Monaco – Lorient17 March 20242-2
Lorient – Monaco17 September 20232-2
Monaco – Lorient16 April 20233-1