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Ligue 1 · Matchday 30Saturday 1 May · 16:00 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Marseille6th place
TFC 43%X 26%OM 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Marseille -0.4.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.557%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.33X26%3.81231%3.25
Double chance
1X69%1.45X257%1.751274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marseille – Toulouse1 November 20262-0
Toulouse – Marseille7 March 20260-1
Marseille – Toulouse29 November 20252-2
Marseille – Toulouse6 April 20253-2
Toulouse – Marseille31 August 20241-3
Toulouse – Marseille21 April 20242-2