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Ligue 1 · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 14:00 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Marseille6th place
AUX 28%X 25%OM 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 125 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Auxerre 1.4.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.8
Over 2.562%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.52X25%3.97246%2.16
Double chance
1X54%1.87X272%1.401275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.60BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marseille – Auxerre13 March 20261-0
Auxerre – Marseille1 November 20250-1
Auxerre – Marseille22 February 20253-0
Marseille – Auxerre8 November 20241-3
Marseille – Auxerre30 April 20232-1
Auxerre – Marseille3 September 20220-2