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Ligue 1 · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 16:15 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Rennes5th place
TFC 46%X 26%REN 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Rennes -0.4.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Rennes score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.4
Over 2.560%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.16X26%3.89228%3.57
Double chance
1X72%1.39X254%1.861274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.560%1.65Under 2.540%2.53BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.65

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Rennes1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →
RennesLWLWL

Head to head

Rennes – Toulouse28 February 20261-0
Toulouse – Rennes29 October 20252-2
Toulouse – Rennes3 May 20252-1
Rennes – Toulouse10 November 20240-2
Rennes – Toulouse13 April 20241-2
Toulouse – Rennes17 December 20230-0