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Ligue 1 · Matchday 12Saturday 28 November · 19:45 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Lorient10th place
PSG 72%X 19%LOR 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 203 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Lorient 1.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Lorient 0.1.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.39X19%5.40210%10.26
Double chance
1X90%1.11X228%3.541281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Lorient2-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Lorient2 May 20262-2
Lorient – Paris Saint-Germain29 October 20251-1
Lorient – Paris Saint-Germain24 April 20241-4
Paris Saint-Germain – Lorient12 August 20230-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Lorient30 April 20231-3
Lorient – Paris Saint-Germain6 November 20221-2