TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 19:45 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Monaco7th place
OL 49%X 27%MON 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Monaco 1.0.
  • Lyon take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Monaco -0.1.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.03X27%3.74224%4.18
Double chance
1X76%1.31X251%1.971273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Lyon – Monaco22 March 20261-2
Monaco – Lyon3 January 20261-3
Monaco – Lyon10 May 20252-0
Lyon – Monaco24 August 20240-2
Lyon – Monaco28 April 20243-2
Monaco – Lyon15 December 20230-1