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Ligue 1 · Matchday 12Saturday 28 November · 19:45 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Lille2nd place
LMS 20%X 24%LIL 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lille lead by 199 rating points.
  • Lille take 2.4 points per game away.
  • Last 5 games: Lille 1.6 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.7
Over 2.550%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.04X24%4.15256%1.78
Double chance
1X44%2.28X280%1.251276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Mans · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
Le MansWLLDL
LilleLWDDW