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Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Saturday 7 November · 16:15 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre13th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Paris FC4th place
AUX 25%X 26%PFC 49%

What's at stake

AuxerreRelegation6%11%15%
Paris FCTop 459%48%43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC lead by 107 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 1.0, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.552%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.07X26%3.80249%2.04
Double chance
1X51%1.96X275%1.331274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.08BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Paris FC1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Auxerre – Paris FC8 February 20260-0
Paris FC – Auxerre29 November 20251-1