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Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Saturday 7 November · 19:45 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Troyes16th place
PSG 85%X 11%ETG 4%

What's at stake

Paris Saint-GermainTitle94%87%88%
TroyesRelegation35%44%50%

What does the market say?

Paris Saint-GermainDrawTroyesRinvalo85%11%4%
Market83%12%5%

✓ Agree · both back Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 367 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Troyes -0.4.
  • The market also backs the home side (83%).
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 19% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals3.0 – 0.6
Over 2.571%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
185%1.18X11%8.9824%23.75
Double chance
1X96%1.04X215%6.521289%1.13
Goals
Over 2.571%1.41Market 74%Under 2.529%3.41Market 26%BTTS yes44%2.27Market 48%BTTS no56%1.79Market 52%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Troyes3-0 probability 12.1%

Form

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Head to head

Troyes – Paris Saint-Germain7 May 20231-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes29 October 20224-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Troyes8 May 20222-2
Troyes – Paris Saint-Germain7 August 20211-2