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Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 19:45 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Marseille6th place
RCL 53%X 25%OM 23%

What's at stake

LensTop 445%33%28%
MarseilleTop 439%29%22%

What does the market say?

LensDrawMarseilleRinvalo53%25%23%
Market45%25%30%

✓ Agree · both back Lens

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lens 0.2, Marseille -0.4.
  • The market also backs the home side (45%).
  • If Lens score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.2
Over 2.562%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X25%4.07223%4.43
Double chance
1X77%1.29X247%2.121275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Market 66%Under 2.538%2.63Market 34%BTTS yes62%1.62Market 65%BTTS no38%2.61Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Marseille – Lens24 January 20263-1
Lens – Marseille25 October 20252-1
Marseille – Lens8 March 20250-1
Lens – Marseille23 November 20241-3
Marseille – Lens28 April 20242-1
Lens – Marseille12 November 20231-0