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Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 16:15 · Stade Marie-Marvingt
Le Mans17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Monaco7th place
LMS 24%X 24%MON 52%

What's at stake

Le MansRelegation35%46%53%
MonacoTop 438%28%24%

What does the market say?

Le MansDrawMonacoRinvalo24%24%52%
Market22%25%54%

✓ Agree · both back Monaco

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco lead by 163 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Monaco -0.1, Le Mans -0.7.
  • The market also backs the away side (54%).
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Monaco score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.9
Over 2.561%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.24X24%4.12252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.09X276%1.311276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Market 60%Under 2.539%2.58Market 40%BTTS yes61%1.63Market 59%BTTS no39%2.60Market 41%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Mans · Columns: Monaco1-1 probability 10.8%

Form

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Le MansWLLDL
MonacoWDLDL