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Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 16:15 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Lyon3rd place
BRE 32%X 28%OL 41%

What's at stake

LyonTop 468%56%49%

What does the market say?

BrestDrawLyonRinvalo32%28%41%
Market33%26%41%

✓ Agree · both back Lyon

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 123 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Brest 0.8.
  • The market also backs the away side (41%).
  • If Brest score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.13X28%3.63241%2.47
Double chance
1X59%1.68X268%1.471272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Market 55%Under 2.547%2.14Market 45%BTTS yes58%1.74Market 59%BTTS no42%2.35Market 41%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lyon – Brest18 January 20262-1
Brest – Lyon2 November 20250-0
Lyon – Brest2 March 20252-1
Brest – Lyon11 January 20252-1
Lyon – Brest14 April 20244-3
Brest – Lyon23 September 20231-0