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Ligue 1 · Matchday 10Friday 6 November · 19:45 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Strasbourg13th place
TFC 49%X 26%STR 25%

What's at stake

ToulouseTop 46%3%1%
StrasbourgTop 45%2%2%

What does the market say?

ToulouseDrawStrasbourgRinvalo49%26%25%
Market46%25%29%

✓ Agree · both back Toulouse

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Toulouse 1.6 points per game, Strasbourg 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Strasbourg -0.4.
  • The market also backs the home side (46%).
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.03X26%3.87225%4.03
Double chance
1X75%1.33X251%1.971274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Market 60%Under 2.543%2.31Market 40%BTTS yes59%1.71Market 61%BTTS no41%2.42Market 39%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Strasbourg1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Strasbourg – Toulouse3 May 20261-2
Toulouse – Strasbourg6 December 20251-0
Strasbourg – Toulouse16 March 20252-1
Toulouse – Strasbourg12 January 20251-2
Toulouse – Strasbourg7 April 20240-0
Strasbourg – Toulouse27 August 20232-0