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Ligue 1 · Matchday 14Saturday 12 December · 16:00 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Toulouse12th place
AUX 30%X 28%TFC 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.36X28%3.63243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.75X270%1.421272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Toulouse – Auxerre1 February 20260-0
Auxerre – Toulouse21 September 20251-0
Auxerre – Toulouse9 February 20252-2
Toulouse – Auxerre1 December 20242-0
Toulouse – Auxerre27 May 20231-1
Auxerre – Toulouse11 January 20230-5