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Ligue 1 · Matchday 14Saturday 12 December · 16:00 · Stade Francis-Le Blé
Brest10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Troyes16th place
BRE 63%X 23%ETG 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brest lead by 154 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brest 0.9, Troyes -0.4.
  • If Brest score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.554%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X23%4.44214%7.04
Double chance
1X86%1.17X237%2.721277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.18BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brest · Columns: Troyes2-0 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
BrestLWDLW
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Troyes – Brest19 March 20232-2
Brest – Troyes13 November 20222-1
Brest – Troyes13 February 20225-1
Troyes – Brest22 December 20211-1