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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 14Sunday 13 December · 19:45 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Marseille6th place
OL 50%X 26%OM 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Marseille -0.4.
  • Lyon take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%1.99X26%3.91224%4.15
Double chance
1X76%1.32X250%2.011274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.41BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Marseille – Lyon1 March 20263-2
Lyon – Marseille31 August 20251-0
Marseille – Lyon2 February 20253-2
Lyon – Marseille22 September 20242-3
Lyon – Marseille4 February 20241-0
Marseille – Lyon6 December 20233-0