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Ligue 1 · Matchday 14Saturday 12 December · 16:00 · Allianz Riviera
Nice8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Lens9th place
NIC 27%X 26%RCL 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens lead by 98 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lens 0.2, Nice -0.4.
  • If Nice score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.553%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.71X26%3.81247%2.14
Double chance
1X53%1.88X273%1.371274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes56%1.77BTTS no44%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nice · Columns: Lens1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Nice – Lens2 May 20261-1
Lens – Nice14 December 20252-0
Nice – Lens8 February 20252-0
Lens – Nice28 September 20240-0
Lens – Nice16 March 20241-3
Nice – Lens20 December 20232-0