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Ligue 1 · Matchday 16Saturday 16 January · 16:00 · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Troyes16th place
AUX 52%X 27%ETG 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Auxerre lead by 108 rating points.
  • Auxerre take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Auxerre win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.94X27%3.76222%4.57
Double chance
1X78%1.28X248%2.061273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.06Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Auxerre · Columns: Troyes1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
AuxerreWLWDL
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Auxerre – Troyes1 April 20231-0
Troyes – Auxerre4 November 20221-1