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Ligue 1 · Matchday 16Saturday 16 January · 16:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Lille2nd place
OM 40%X 28%LIL 32%

Prediction

  • If Marseille score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.48X28%3.61232%3.13
Double chance
1X68%1.47X260%1.681272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Marseille – Lille22 March 20261-2
Lille – Marseille5 December 20251-0
Lille – Marseille4 May 20251-1
Marseille – Lille14 December 20241-1
Lille – Marseille5 April 20243-1
Marseille – Lille4 November 20230-0