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Ligue 1 · Matchday 16Saturday 16 January · 16:00 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Toulouse11th place
PFC 50%X 27%TFC 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.02X27%3.69223%4.28
Double chance
1X77%1.31X250%1.981273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Toulouse – Paris FC21 February 20261-1
Paris FC – Toulouse13 December 20250-3