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Ligue 1 · Matchday 16Saturday 16 January · 16:00 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brest10th place
MON 48%X 27%BRE 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco lead by 65 rating points.
  • Monaco take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.10X27%3.72226%3.91
Double chance
1X74%1.34X252%1.911273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.559%1.71Under 2.541%2.41BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL
BrestLWDLW

Head to head

Monaco – Brest14 March 20262-0
Brest – Monaco5 December 20251-0
Brest – Monaco5 April 20252-1
Monaco – Brest22 November 20243-2
Brest – Monaco21 April 20240-2
Monaco – Brest5 November 20232-0