TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 21Sunday 31 January · 13:30 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Feyenoord1st place
AZ 30%X 26%FEY 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Feyenoord lead by 113 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Feyenoord 2.2 points per game, AZ Alkmaar 0.8.
  • Feyenoord take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Feyenoord score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Feyenoord win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.39X26%3.83244%2.25
Double chance
1X56%1.80X270%1.421274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Feyenoord1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar10 October 20262-0
Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar10 May 20261-1
AZ Alkmaar – Feyenoord21 September 20253-3
AZ Alkmaar – Feyenoord5 April 20250-1
Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar2 November 20243-2
AZ Alkmaar – Feyenoord4 February 20240-1