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Eredivisie · Matchday 21Friday 29 January · 19:00 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Excelsior15th place
UTR 57%X 24%EXC 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Utrecht lead by 81 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Utrecht 1.4 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.6, Excelsior -1.1.
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.2
Over 2.564%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Utrecht win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X24%4.16219%5.19
Double chance
1X81%1.24X243%2.311276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.79BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.63

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: Excelsior1-1 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Excelsior – Utrecht13 September 20261-2
Excelsior – Utrecht26 April 20265-0
Utrecht – Excelsior24 August 20254-1
Excelsior – Utrecht27 January 20241-1
Utrecht – Excelsior12 November 20232-2
Utrecht – Excelsior25 January 20231-0