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Eredivisie · Matchday 21Sunday 31 January · 11:15 · Abe Lenstra Stadion
Heerenveen7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Ajax2nd place
HEE 28%X 26%AJA 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 106 rating points.
  • Ajax take 2.3 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Heerenveen 0.2.
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.557%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.62X26%3.89247%2.15
Double chance
1X53%1.87X272%1.381274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes59%1.68BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Ajax – Heerenveen16 August 20262-2
Heerenveen – Ajax17 May 20260-0
Ajax – Heerenveen1 November 20251-1
Heerenveen – Ajax19 January 20250-2
Ajax – Heerenveen11 August 20241-0
Heerenveen – Ajax11 February 20243-2