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Eredivisie · Matchday 21Saturday 30 January · 15:30 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Telstar16th place
SPA 47%X 25%TEL 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, Telstar -0.7.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Telstar score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.561%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X25%3.94228%3.64
Double chance
1X72%1.38X253%1.891275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.65

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: Telstar1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

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Head to head

Telstar – Sparta Rotterdam14 August 20261-3
Telstar – Sparta Rotterdam22 April 20264-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Telstar25 October 20251-0