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Eredivisie · Matchday 21Saturday 30 January · 19:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-4High confidence
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
WIL 5%X 10%PSV 85%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 453 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, Willem II -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: PSV Eindhoven 1.4 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • If Willem II score first, they win 17% of the time
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 93% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals1.2 – 4.1
Over 2.589%
Both teams score69%
Likeliest score1-4
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
15%18.90X10%10.25285%1.18
Double chance
1X15%6.64X295%1.061290%1.11
Goals
Over 2.589%1.12Under 2.511%9.49BTTS yes69%1.46BTTS no31%3.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Willem II · Columns: PSV Eindhoven1-4 probability 7.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PSV Eindhoven – Willem II31 October 20267-0
PSV Eindhoven – Willem II8 February 20251-1
Willem II – PSV Eindhoven28 September 20240-2
PSV Eindhoven – Willem II1 May 20224-2
Willem II – PSV Eindhoven25 September 20212-1