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Eredivisie · Matchday 18Saturday 9 January · 20:00 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Heerenveen7th place
AZ 53%X 25%HEE 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Heerenveen 0.2.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.87X25%3.98221%4.67
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.151275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Heerenveen1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar6 September 20262-3
AZ Alkmaar – Heerenveen12 April 20263-0
Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar23 November 20253-1
Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar2 March 20253-1
AZ Alkmaar – Heerenveen14 September 20249-1
Heerenveen – AZ Alkmaar28 January 20242-2