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Eredivisie · Matchday 18Saturday 9 January · 19:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Ajax2nd place
WIL 8%X 13%AJA 78%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 382 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Willem II -1.1.
  • If Willem II score first, they win 25% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 90% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals0.9 – 3.0
Over 2.575%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
18%12.36X13%7.45278%1.27
Double chance
1X22%4.65X292%1.091287%1.16
Goals
Over 2.575%1.33Under 2.525%4.02BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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3
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5
Rows: Willem II · Columns: Ajax0-3 probability 8.9%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Ajax – Willem II15 September 20265-1
Willem II – Ajax13 April 20251-2
Ajax – Willem II27 October 20241-0
Willem II – Ajax19 February 20220-1
Ajax – Willem II2 December 20215-0