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Eredivisie · Matchday 18Saturday 9 January · 15:30 · Spartastadion
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Excelsior15th place
SPA 51%X 25%EXC 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, Excelsior -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Sparta Rotterdam 1.4 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.561%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X25%3.96224%4.21
Double chance
1X76%1.31X249%2.041275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam · Columns: Excelsior1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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Head to head

Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam29 August 20262-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Excelsior17 May 20262-3
Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam14 September 20250-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Excelsior17 February 20244-2
Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam1 October 20232-1
Excelsior – Sparta Rotterdam5 March 20231-4