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Eredivisie · Matchday 16Sunday 13 December · 15:45 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
AZ 55%X 24%NEC 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, NEC Nijmegen -0.1.
  • AZ Alkmaar take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X24%4.10221%4.78
Double chance
1X79%1.26X245%2.211276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – NEC Nijmegen31 January 20261-3
NEC Nijmegen – AZ Alkmaar28 September 20252-1
NEC Nijmegen – AZ Alkmaar29 March 20253-3
AZ Alkmaar – NEC Nijmegen17 August 20241-0
NEC Nijmegen – AZ Alkmaar28 April 20240-3
AZ Alkmaar – NEC Nijmegen6 December 20231-2