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Eredivisie · Matchday 16Sunday 13 December · 16:00 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
TWE 74%X 17%SPA 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 204 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, Sparta Rotterdam 0.3.
  • Twente take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Twente score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.564%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
174%1.35X17%5.9029%11.25
Double chance
1X91%1.10X226%3.871283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.77BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Twente · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

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Head to head

Twente – Sparta Rotterdam10 May 20264-0
Sparta Rotterdam – Twente19 September 20251-5
Sparta Rotterdam – Twente4 May 20250-2
Twente – Sparta Rotterdam17 August 20241-1
Twente – Sparta Rotterdam9 March 20242-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Twente17 December 20232-2