TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 16Saturday 12 December · 15:30 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Fortuna Sittard6th place
UTR 55%X 25%FOR 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Utrecht -0.6, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.559%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Utrecht win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X25%4.07221%4.87
Double chance
1X79%1.26X245%2.221275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: Fortuna Sittard1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Utrecht – Fortuna Sittard17 May 20262-0
Fortuna Sittard – Utrecht20 September 20251-0
Fortuna Sittard – Utrecht18 May 20250-0
Utrecht – Fortuna Sittard22 December 20242-5
Utrecht – Fortuna Sittard11 February 20244-0
Fortuna Sittard – Utrecht28 October 20230-0