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Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Arouca5th place
BEN 70%X 19%ARO 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 195 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Arouca 0.0.
  • Benfica take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.9
Over 2.563%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X19%5.17211%9.17
Double chance
1X89%1.12X230%3.311281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Arouca2-0 probability 10.8%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWWLWW
AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Arouca – Benfica14 March 20261-2
Benfica – Arouca25 October 20255-0
Benfica – Arouca13 April 20252-2
Arouca – Benfica1 December 20240-2
Benfica – Arouca12 May 20245-0
Arouca – Benfica6 January 20240-3