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Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Gil Vicente9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nacional15th place
GIL 54%X 27%NAC 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Gil Vicente lead by 108 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Gil Vicente 1.6 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Gil Vicente 0.2, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.8
Over 2.540%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X27%3.70219%5.17
Double chance
1X81%1.24X246%2.161273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.540%2.48Under 2.560%1.68BTTS yes43%2.30BTTS no57%1.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Gil Vicente · Columns: Nacional1-0 probability 14.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Nacional17 January 20262-1
Nacional – Gil Vicente9 August 20250-2
Nacional – Gil Vicente19 April 20250-3
Gil Vicente – Nacional7 December 20242-1