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Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Braga7th place
POR 59%X 25%SCB 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 182 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Braga 0.8.
  • Porto take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • If Porto score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.547%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X25%4.00216%6.21
Double chance
1X84%1.19X241%2.431275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes46%2.15BTTS no54%1.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Braga1-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Braga – Porto22 March 20261-2
Porto – Braga2 November 20252-1
Braga – Porto8 March 20251-0
Porto – Braga6 October 20242-1
Braga – Porto18 May 20240-1
Porto – Braga14 January 20242-0