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Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
SCL 19%X 24%SCP 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 182 rating points.
  • Sporting CP take 2.2 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Santa Clara 0.3.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.8
Over 2.550%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.30X24%4.11257%1.76
Double chance
1X43%2.32X281%1.231276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes50%1.99BTTS no50%2.01

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Sporting CP1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Santa Clara3 April 20264-2
Santa Clara – Sporting CP8 November 20251-2
Santa Clara – Sporting CP12 April 20250-1
Sporting CP – Santa Clara30 November 20240-1
Sporting CP – Santa Clara1 April 20233-0
Santa Clara – Sporting CP8 October 20221-2